Analysis of EURUSD from a Fundamental Standpoint

Interest Rate Differentials

The European Central Bank (ECB) maintained interest rates at record high levels for the fifth consecutive time during its April meeting. The decision to keep rates unchanged was driven by the persistent inflationary pressures facing the euro area.

However, the ECB also acknowledged that inflation has continued to decline, with most measures of underlying inflation and wage growth easing. This suggests that the ECB's aggressive monetary policy tightening might be starting to take effect in curbing price pressures.

Nonetheless, ECB officials cautioned that domestic price pressures remain strong, leading to high services price inflation. During the central bank's press conference, President Christine Lagarde emphasized that the ECB is not pre-committing to a particular rate path, and future moves will be data-dependent.

Lagarde's remarks indicate that the ECB is closely monitoring incoming economic data and will adjust its policy stance accordingly. If the ECB becomes more confident that inflation is moving steadily toward its 2% target, it may consider reducing the level of policy restriction, or in other words, begin cutting interest rates.

Regarding interest rate differentials between the United States and the Eurozone, there is not much divergence at the moment. Both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the ECB are maintaining a "higher for longer" narrative, with interest rates at elevated levels to combat stubborn inflation.

The ECB's statement suggests that it is open to potentially easing its monetary policy stance if inflation continues to moderate. However, any such decision would be contingent on the incoming data, aligning with the Fed's approach of being data-dependent in its future rate decisions.

Given the similarity in policy stances between the two central banks, significant interest rate differentials are unlikely to emerge in the near term. Both monetary authorities are committed to keeping rates high until they are confident that inflation is firmly on a downward trajectory toward their respective targets.

Consequently, any potential divergence in interest rate paths between the United States and the Eurozone would likely depend on the relative pace of disinflation in the two economies, as well as the central banks' assessments of the underlying drivers of inflationary pressures.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Comparison: United States vs. Eurozone

The GDP growth trajectories of the United States and the Eurozone have diverged in recent quarters, presenting an interesting dynamic for the respective central banks' policy considerations.

In the United States, the quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate has been on a declining trend. After expanding by 4.9% in the third quarter of 2023, the US economy experienced slower growth of 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023, followed by a further deceleration to 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024.

On the other hand, the Eurozone's economy had been contracting since the second quarter of 2022, when it recorded a high of 0.8% growth. The region entered a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, toward the end of 2023.

However, in the first quarter of 2024, the Eurozone's GDP expanded by a surprising 0.3%, beating market expectations of a marginal 0.1% expansion. This marked the fastest growth rate since the third quarter of 2022 and signaled a potential recovery after the muted readings since the fourth quarter of 2022.

The Eurozone's positive GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024 is significant because it provided the European Central Bank (ECB) with the leeway it needed to refrain from cutting interest rates, at least for the time being. By maintaining its hawkish stance, the ECB aims to continue its fight against persistent inflationary pressures.

Comparing the two economies' GDP performance, it appears that the Eurozone's economy is gaining traction, while the US economy is showing signs of slowing down. If the Eurozone's growth momentum is sustained, it could suggest that the ECB may not feel the urgency to cut interest rates as quickly as the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the United States.

However, it is crucial to note that it may be too early to determine whether the Eurozone's growth will be sustained in the coming quarters. If the region's economic expansion continues, it could lead to increased job creation, potentially exacerbating inflationary pressures and making the ECB's fight against inflation more challenging.

Conversely, if the US economy continues to decelerate, it could prompt the Fed to initiate interest rate cuts sooner than the ECB. A contracting economy typically leads to lower demand, reduced job creation, and ultimately a decline in inflationary pressures, which would necessitate monetary policy easing by the central bank to stimulate economic growth.

In summary, while the recent GDP data suggest that the Eurozone's economy is outperforming the US economy, it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions about the central banks' future policy paths. Both the Fed and the ECB will closely monitor incoming economic data, particularly inflation indicators, to determine the appropriate timing and pace of any potential interest rate adjustments. The relative strength of each economy's GDP growth and the accompanying inflationary pressures will play a crucial role in shaping their respective monetary policy decisions.

Inflation Differentials and Labor Market Dynamics

Inflation data is a critical piece of the puzzle in assessing the potential monetary policy moves of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB), which will ultimately influence the relative strength of the US dollar (USD) and the euro (EUR).

In the United States, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, shows that inflation remains stickier or more persistent. We have previously analyzed the causative factors behind this, such as the tight labor market and elevated interest rates.

In contrast, the Eurozone is painting a different picture, with core inflation appearing to decline steadily. If this trend continues, it could pave the way for the ECB to consider interest rate cuts sooner than initially anticipated.

However, it is essential to address the labor market dynamics, which form the other side of the inflationary equation. The Eurozone has been experiencing stagnant job growth since November 2023, with the unemployment rate remaining at 6.5% to date.

The recent signs of economic strength in the Eurozone, as evidenced by the positive GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024, could lead to more job creation in the coming quarters. A declining unemployment rate would likely exacerbate inflationary pressures in the region, potentially offsetting the positive effects of the currently declining inflation trend.

While a sustained decline in inflation is a positive development and may be a prerequisite for the ECB to begin its quantitative easing (QE) cycle, the central bank might also consider the potential impact of a growing GDP on inflationary pressures. A robust economic expansion could prompt the ECB to maintain its hawkish stance and hold interest rates at higher levels for a more extended period.

On the other hand, the upcoming Core PCE data release in the United States will provide further insights into the inflation trajectory. Depending on the figures, it may become clearer whether the Fed needs to maintain its aggressive monetary policy tightening or if there is room for easing in the near future.

Based on the current analysis, the signs point toward a potential weakening of the US dollar against the euro. However, it is crucial to closely monitor the incoming economic data, particularly inflation figures and labor market indicators, as these will ultimately guide the central banks' policy decisions and, consequently, the relative strength of their respective currencies.

In summary, while declining inflation in the Eurozone may suggest the possibility of earlier rate cuts by the ECB, the central bank will also consider the potential inflationary impact of a growing economy and a tightening labor market. The Fed's policy path will be heavily influenced by the upcoming Core PCE data and the overall inflation trajectory in the United States. Careful analysis of these factors will be essential in determining the appropriate currency positioning, whether to sell the USD against the EUR or vice versa.